Yoon out of custody before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 5.7% probability to "Yoon out of custody before 2027?". The market is currently pricing YES at 5.7¢ and NO at 90.3¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $1,174 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 4, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 5.7% probability to "Yoon out of custody before 2027?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 5.7¢ and NO at 90.3¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $1,174 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-04T17:41:36.155Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
5.7¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
90.3¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 5.7%.
Market Structure
Probability
5.7%
Spread
0.04
Liquidity
Low
Volume (24h)
$1,174
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 5.7¢
- NO trades near 90.3¢
- Implied probability sits near 5.7%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Low liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has low participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
yoon-out-of-custody-before-2027 - Last Updated: 2026-05-04T17:41:36.155Z
- Category: other
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