Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 12.0% probability to "Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?". The market is currently pricing YES at 12.0¢ and NO at 87.0¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as medium, with approximately $1,003 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 4, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 12.0% probability to "Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 12.0¢ and NO at 87.0¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as medium, with approximately $1,003 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-04T17:41:36.154Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
12.0¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
87.0¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 12.0%.
Market Structure
Probability
12.0%
Spread
0.01
Liquidity
Medium
Volume (24h)
$1,003
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 12.0¢
- NO trades near 87.0¢
- Implied probability sits near 12.0%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Medium liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has medium participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026 - Last Updated: 2026-05-04T17:41:36.154Z
- Category: other
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