Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 0.9% probability to "Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?". The market is currently pricing YES at 0.9¢ and NO at 96.3¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $23,383 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 6, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 0.9% probability to "Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 0.9¢ and NO at 96.3¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $23,383 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.825Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
0.9¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
96.3¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 0.9%.
Market Structure
Probability
0.9%
Spread
0.028
Liquidity
Low
Volume (24h)
$23,383
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 0.9¢
- NO trades near 96.3¢
- Implied probability sits near 0.9%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Low liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has low participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
will-there-be-between-10-and-20-average-daily-transits-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-30-633 - Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.825Z
- Category: other
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