Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 76.8% probability to "Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?". The market is currently pricing YES at 76.8¢ and NO at 10.2¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $1,464 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 6, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 76.8% probability to "Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 76.8¢ and NO at 10.2¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $1,464 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-06T22:45:33.204Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
76.8¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
10.2¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 76.8%.
Market Structure
Probability
76.8%
Spread
0.13
Liquidity
Low
Volume (24h)
$1,464
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 76.8¢
- NO trades near 10.2¢
- Implied probability sits near 76.8%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Low liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has low participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
will-there-be-at-least-1900-measles-cases-in-the-us-by-may-31-2026 - Last Updated: 2026-05-06T22:45:33.204Z
- Category: other
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