Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 0.1% probability to "Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?". The market is currently pricing YES at 0.1¢ and NO at 99.8¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $5,965 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 6, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 0.1% probability to "Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 0.1¢ and NO at 99.8¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $5,965 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.822Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
0.1¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
99.8¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 0.1%.
Market Structure
Probability
0.1%
Spread
0.001
Liquidity
Low
Volume (24h)
$5,965
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 0.1¢
- NO trades near 99.8¢
- Implied probability sits near 0.1%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Low liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has low participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
will-rebecca-scriven-win-the-by-election-for-the-seat-of-farrer-in-the-australian-house-of-representatives - Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.822Z
- Category: other
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