Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 86.0% probability to "Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?". The market is currently pricing YES at 86.0¢ and NO at 10.0¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $1,462 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 6, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 86.0% probability to "Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 86.0¢ and NO at 10.0¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $1,462 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-06T22:45:33.202Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
86.0¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
10.0¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 86.0%.
Market Structure
Probability
86.0%
Spread
0.04
Liquidity
Low
Volume (24h)
$1,462
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 86.0¢
- NO trades near 10.0¢
- Implied probability sits near 86.0%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Low liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has low participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
will-no-country-replace-iran-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup - Last Updated: 2026-05-06T22:45:33.202Z
- Category: other
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