Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 0.4% probability to "Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?". The market is currently pricing YES at 0.4¢ and NO at 99.0¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $1,368 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 6, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 0.4% probability to "Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 0.4¢ and NO at 99.0¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $1,368 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.825Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
0.4¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
99.0¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 0.4%.
Market Structure
Probability
0.4%
Spread
0.006
Liquidity
Low
Volume (24h)
$1,368
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 0.4¢
- NO trades near 99.0¢
- Implied probability sits near 0.4%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Low liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has low participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
will-global-temperature-increase-by-less-than-1pt10c-in-april-2026 - Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.825Z
- Category: other
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