Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 37.8% probability to "Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?". The market is currently pricing YES at 37.8¢ and NO at 61.8¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $2,519 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 6, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 37.8% probability to "Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 37.8¢ and NO at 61.8¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $2,519 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.827Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
37.8¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
61.8¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 37.8%.
Market Structure
Probability
37.8%
Spread
0.004
Liquidity
Low
Volume (24h)
$2,519
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 37.8¢
- NO trades near 61.8¢
- Implied probability sits near 37.8%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Low liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has low participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
will-annual-inflation-increase-by-3pt7-in-april - Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.827Z
- Category: other
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