US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction markets function as real-time belief compression layers where distributed information becomes executable probability.

Each trade represents:

• updated information processing
• position hedging against future states
• narrative reinforcement or rejection
• asymmetric knowledge correction

Unlike polling or forecasting models, these systems continuously self-correct through financial exposure, making them sensitive to:

This produces a live probabilistic system that behaves closer to a market-driven intelligence engine than a static prediction tool.