Trump out as President before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 13.0% probability to "Trump out as President before 2027?". The market is currently pricing YES at 13.0¢ and NO at 86.0¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as high, with approximately $26,342 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 4, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 13.0% probability to "Trump out as President before 2027?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 13.0¢ and NO at 86.0¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as high, with approximately $26,342 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-04T17:41:36.155Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
13.0¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
86.0¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 13.0%.
Market Structure
Probability
13.0%
Spread
0.01
Liquidity
High
Volume (24h)
$26,342
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 13.0¢
- NO trades near 86.0¢
- Implied probability sits near 13.0%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
High liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has high participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
trump-out-as-president-before-2027 - Last Updated: 2026-05-04T17:41:36.155Z
- Category: other
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