Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 68.0% probability to "Starmer out by December 31, 2026?". The market is currently pricing YES at 68.0¢ and NO at 31.0¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as medium, with approximately $14,787 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 4, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 68.0% probability to "Starmer out by December 31, 2026?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 68.0¢ and NO at 31.0¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as medium, with approximately $14,787 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-04T17:41:36.155Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
68.0¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
31.0¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 68.0%.
Market Structure
Probability
68.0%
Spread
0.01
Liquidity
Medium
Volume (24h)
$14,787
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 68.0¢
- NO trades near 31.0¢
- Implied probability sits near 68.0%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Medium liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has medium participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
starmer-out-by-december-31-2026-936-416-977-234 - Last Updated: 2026-05-04T17:41:36.155Z
- Category: other
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