Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Polymarket traders currently assign a 0.2% probability to "Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?". The market is pricing YES at 0.2¢ and NO at 99.3¢ with medium liquidity conditions.

May 6, 2026

#prediction markets #geopolitical risk #strait of hormuz #shipping disruption #polymarket #probability trading #macro risk #energy markets

Polymarket traders currently assign a 0.2% probability to the condition:

“60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30.”

The market is pricing:

YES at 0.2¢
NO at 99.3¢

Liquidity conviction is classified as Medium, with approximately $60,210 in 24-hour trading activity.

Last Updated: 2026-05-06T22:45:33.199Z

Market Snapshot

Implied Probability

0.2%

Extremely low likelihood regime

YES Price

0.2¢

Event occurrence pricing

NO Price

99.3¢

Strong rejection consensus

24h Volume

$60,210

Medium liquidity participation

Market Context Layer

GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE SIGNAL

Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption regime

The Strait of Hormuz is currently operating under elevated geopolitical stress conditions, with shipping throughput significantly below historical baselines due to regional conflict dynamics and maritime security disruptions.

Market pricing reflects sustained expectations of constrained transit capacity rather than short-term volatility alone.

Market Structure

Probability

0.2%

Near-zero event expectation

Liquidity Regime

Medium

Moderate trader participation depth

Market Type

Threshold Event

Binary traffic normalization condition

Data Source

IMF Portwatch

Transit call verification system

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if IMF Portwatch reports ≥60 average daily transit calls (7-day moving average) for any date within the evaluation window ending April 30, 2026.

Eligible vessel categories include:

container ships
tankers
dry bulk carriers
general cargo
roll-on/roll-off vessels

If no qualifying threshold is met, the market resolves to NO.

Geopolitical Drivers

Conflict Pressure

High

Maritime security disruption regime

Supply Chain Impact

Severe

Global oil flow sensitivity elevated

Price Sensitivity

Extreme

Oil-linked macro feedback loop

Market Interpretation

Prediction markets currently treat the ≥60 ships/day normalization threshold as a structurally unlikely regime event under present geopolitical constraints.

Pricing reflects:

sustained maritime disruption expectations
low probability of rapid de-escalation
persistent supply chain friction in Gulf transit corridors

Final Intelligence Signal

INTEL SUMMARY

Deep disruption baseline regime

The Strait of Hormuz shipping system is currently priced as operating in a constrained equilibrium state, where normalization to ≥60 daily transits is treated as a low-probability tail outcome.