Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 0.4% probability to "Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?". The market is currently pricing YES at 0.4¢ and NO at 99.5¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as medium, with approximately $19,536 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 6, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 0.4% probability to "Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 0.4¢ and NO at 99.5¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as medium, with approximately $19,536 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.823Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
0.4¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
99.5¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 0.4%.
Market Structure
Probability
0.4%
Spread
0.001
Liquidity
Medium
Volume (24h)
$19,536
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count.
If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 0.4¢
- NO trades near 99.5¢
- Implied probability sits near 0.4%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Medium liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has medium participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
kevin-warsh-fed-chair-nomination-withdrawn-by-may-15 - Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.823Z
- Category: other
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