Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 94.8% probability to "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?". The market is currently pricing YES at 94.8¢ and NO at 5.0¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as medium, with approximately $6,658 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 6, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 94.8% probability to "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 94.8¢ and NO at 5.0¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as medium, with approximately $6,658 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.821Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
94.8¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
5.0¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 94.8%.
Market Structure
Probability
94.8%
Spread
0.002
Liquidity
Medium
Volume (24h)
$6,658
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 94.8¢
- NO trades near 5.0¢
- Implied probability sits near 94.8%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Medium liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has medium participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15-961 - Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.821Z
- Category: other
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