Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 21.0% probability to "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?". The market is currently pricing YES at 21.0¢ and NO at 75.0¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $1,989 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 4, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 21.0% probability to "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 21.0¢ and NO at 75.0¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $1,989 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-04T21:42:11.494Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
21.0¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
75.0¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 21.0%.
Market Structure
Probability
21.0%
Spread
0.04
Liquidity
Low
Volume (24h)
$1,989
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 21.0¢
- NO trades near 75.0¢
- Implied probability sits near 21.0%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Low liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has low participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-june-30 - Last Updated: 2026-05-04T21:42:11.494Z
- Category: other
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