Iran leadership change by May 31?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 4.0% probability to "Iran leadership change by May 31?". The market is currently pricing YES at 4.0¢ and NO at 95.0¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as medium, with approximately $117,041 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 6, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 4.0% probability to "Iran leadership change by May 31?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 4.0¢ and NO at 95.0¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as medium, with approximately $117,041 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.825Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
4.0¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
95.0¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 4.0%.
Market Structure
Probability
4.0%
Spread
0.01
Liquidity
Medium
Volume (24h)
$117,041
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 4.0¢
- NO trades near 95.0¢
- Implied probability sits near 4.0%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Medium liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has medium participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
iran-leadership-change-by-may-31-593-194-829 - Last Updated: 2026-05-06T21:29:10.825Z
- Category: other
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