Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket traders currently assign a 63.0% probability to "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?". The market is currently pricing YES at 63.0¢ and NO at 36.0¢. Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $3,406 in 24-hour trading activity.
May 4, 2026
Polymarket traders currently assign a 63.0% probability to "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?".
The market is currently pricing YES at 63.0¢ and NO at 36.0¢.
Liquidity conviction is currently classified as low, with approximately $3,406 in 24-hour trading activity.
Last Updated: 2026-05-04T21:42:11.494Z
Current Market Pricing
YES Price
63.0¢
Bullish probability pricing
NO Price
36.0¢
Bearish probability pricing
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 63.0%.
Market Structure
Probability
63.0%
Spread
0.01
Liquidity
Low
Volume (24h)
$3,406
Markets with tighter spreads and higher liquidity generally indicate stronger trader participation and more efficient price discovery.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Market Interpretation
Prediction markets function as real-time consensus engines.
Traders continuously buy and sell outcome shares based on:
- breaking news
- macro developments
- public narratives
- institutional positioning
- probability reassessments
As a result, market pricing reflects aggregate trader expectations rather than static forecasts or polling systems.
At the current pricing structure:
- YES trades near 63.0¢
- NO trades near 36.0¢
- Implied probability sits near 63.0%
These probabilities may shift rapidly as new information enters the market.
Liquidity & Conviction Analysis
Low liquidity conviction suggests the market currently has low participation depth.
Higher liquidity environments typically produce:
- tighter spreads
- faster price discovery
- stronger informational efficiency
- lower pricing instability
Lower liquidity environments can produce sharper volatility swings and less reliable consensus pricing.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into continuously updating probabilities.
Unlike static polling systems, these markets react in real time to:
- political developments
- macroeconomic events
- institutional sentiment
- narrative shifts
- market-moving news
- crowd positioning
This makes them useful as live probabilistic intelligence systems rather than simple betting platforms.
Market Metadata
- Market Slug:
clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026 - Last Updated: 2026-05-04T21:42:11.494Z
- Category: other
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